Loading ...Will Trump Return to the Nuclear Deal with Iran?
By: Ghassan Rubeiz / Arab America Contributing Writer
In 2015, several world leaders, including then-President Obama, reached an agreement with Iran, known mainly as the “Iran nuclear deal,” to limit Iran’s nuclear program in return for sanctions relief. Three years later, Trump withdrew from the deal and reinstated sanctions against Iran. At the Davos summit, CNN’s Fareed Zakaria recently asked Iranian Vice President for Strategic Affairs Mohamad Javad Zarif what he thought of the deal’s prospects. Zarif expressed optimism that Trump would revive the nuclear agreement. (CNN- Global Public Square, 1.27. 25)
A potential U.S.-Iran understanding could dramatically affect the Middle East. Such a deal would help Iran normalize its global relations with Middle Eastern nations, Europe, and the United States. A sanctions-free Iran would reduce its support for regional resistance groups like Hezbollah, Hamas, Iraqi resistance forces, and Yemen’s Houthis. This shift could also lessen Iran’s dependence on Russia and China, potentially easing the growing global polarization between the China-Russia axis and the Western alliance.
However, improving relations with Iran presents significant challenges. Iran’s authoritarian, revolutionary, and anti-Western stance makes it difficult for Western nations to embrace a regime that both suppresses domestic dissent and actively supports Palestinian liberation. Yet Israel’s demonization of Iran and claims of innocence are equally problematic. Israel contends that defeating Iran would resolve the Palestinian occupation – a position Israeli President Herzog reinforced at Davos, suggesting Palestinian rights would eventually be addressed. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has consistently urged Washington to maintain strict sanctions on Tehran while exploring options to strike Iran’s nuclear facilities, with or without U.S. support.
As Gaza ceasefire negotiations progress without clear plans for post-war governance and reconstruction, Netanyahu’s political position appears increasingly precarious. His departure might reduce Israel’s fixation on Iran.
While Trump has shown antipathy toward Iran, he also distrusts Netanyahu and appears unwilling to wage war on Israel’s behalf. His advisers have noted that sanctions have failed to impede Iran’s nuclear progress: in fact, Iran has moved closer to weapons-grade production capability since the U.S. withdrew from the nuclear agreement.
A weaker and humbled Tehran has recently taken a number of conciliatory steps toward Washington, including a declaration that it is halting work on nuclear projects and an expression of interest in dialogue with the new US administration. Meanwhile, the Houthis, its Yemeni proxies, stopped their attacks on ships on trade routes in the region after the start of the Gaza ceasefire. https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/irans-khamenei-halts-nuclear-weapons-program-in-olive-branch-to-trump/ar-AA1xEwlC
The risks of regime change in Iran are significant. Recent experiences in Syria demonstrate that overthrowing existing leadership does not guarantee better outcomes for local populations or regional stability. A failed military intervention against Iran could have unpredictable consequences for Israel as well.
Trump says he envisions peace in both Ukraine and the Middle East. His Ukraine initiative aligns with a broader transactional, non-interventionist European strategy to reduce U.S. defense commitments there. In the Middle East, he focuses on expanding U.S. business opportunities in oil-rich Arab states, particularly Saudi Arabia and the UAE. (His recent offhand remarks about “cleaning out” Gaza for real development reflect the same mindset). Iran has improved its relations with Arab nations, and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman has indicated that joining the Abraham Accords depends on progress regarding Palestine and reduced U.S.-Iran tensions. It seems unlikely that the U.S. could broker peace with Russia while simultaneously pursuing conflict with Iran.
Although Trump has appointed foreign policy hawks to manage Middle East relations, few have much diplomatic expertise. Consequently, U.S. policy toward Iran, Israel, and Palestine may largely depend on Trump’s volatile temperament and a small circle of advisers who are increasingly skeptical of foreign aid and concerned about the national debt. Last week, Trump tapped Michael Dimino as deputy assistant secretary of defense, a move which alarmed Israel’s supporters in Washington. Dimino is against the unconditional support of Israel, and he does not believe that US presence in the Middle East should be a high priority. https://jewishinsider.com/2025/01/pro-israel-republicans-alarmed-over-trumps-defense-department-nominee/
Trump’s agenda emphasizes domestic disruption over foreign military intervention. His peace-oriented rhetoric typically addresses international affairs, while his more aggressive posturing focuses on domestic issues. This mindset suggests a potential diplomatic recalibration with Iran.
Ghassan Rubeiz is the former Middle East Secretary of the World Council of Churches. Earlier, he taught psychology and social work in his country of birth, Lebanon, and later in the United States, where he currently lives. For the past twenty years, he has contributed to political commentary and delivered occasional public talks on peace, justice, and interfaith subjects. You can reach him at rubeizg@gmail.com
The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the position of Arab America. The reproduction of this article is permissible with proper credit to Arab America and the author.
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