SOURCE: ARAB AMERICAN INSTITUTE

BY: DR. JAMES J. ZOGBY

The history of the Middle East has always been defined by its waterways —the Tigris and Euphrates in the East, the Nile in the West, and the Sea of Galilee and Jordan River flowing through its heart. Dozens of civilizations and hundreds of millions of souls have been nourished by these waters. The waterways’ constancy, long taken for granted, is no longer assured.

Climate change and unilateral initiatives by Turkey, Israel, and Ethiopia have had a dramatic impact on their neighbors’ water supply. Left unaddressed, the results will be devastating to the survival of hundreds of millions; resultant tensions could fuel ever greater conflicts.

Rising temperatures and reduced rainfall have caused the worst drought in 900 years in several Arab countries, and increasingly intense dust storms with effects reaching to the Arabian Peninsula.

Ample evidence points to drought as a precipitating factor to the conflict in Syria. Years of dangerously low levels of rain coupled with government mismanagement resulted in hundreds of thousands of Syrian farmers forced to flee to cities. The pressure of these internally displaced Syrians and over a million Iraqi refugees stressed resources, preparing the ground for civil strife and extremism, ultimately erupting into mass protests. The regime’s brutal response only fueled the population’s anger at their dislocation and poverty.

Beyond drought and the regime’s behavior, Syria’s water problems were exacerbated by Turkey’s dams on the Euphrates that reduced water flow into the country by 40%.

Iraq, also experiencing rising temperatures, less rainfall, and spreading desertification, has been even more dramatically impacted by Turkey’s dams of both the Tigris and Euphrates. The resulting 80% decline in Iraq’s water supply has decimated its date crop, citrus orchards, and rice fields, as Iraq loses about 100 square miles of arable land annually.

Fresh water in the rivers, a major source of Iraq’s drinking water, is compromised as the backflow of salt water from the Gulf seeps into the rivers rendering them unsafe for consumption and irrigation. With Turkey planning 22 more dams on both rivers, the situation downstream will only worsen.

Similarly, Egypt and Sudan are struggling with threats to their well-being from Ethiopia’s new dam project — the largest on the African continent. Egyptians, who depend on the Nile for 97% of their water, will lose about 20% of its waters to the Greater Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, while Sudan will lose almost 50% of its supply. Already facing water scarcities and desertification, Sudan and Egypt’s rapidly growing populations and struggling economies will face monumental challenges and growing unrest.

For its part, Israel has long diverted the waters from the Sea of Galilee to support its agriculture and population.

In 1967, Israel overran the West Bank, seizing Mandatory Palestine and the Golan Heights, enabling intensified exploitation of the waters of the sea, the Jordan River, and the West Banks’ aquifers. Today, Israelis drain more than 80% of the West Bank’s aquifers, and their diversion of Galilee and Jordan River’s waters have resulted in shrinking that historic river to 5% of its original volume. To add insult to injury, Palestinians and Jordanians are now forced to buy water from Israel at inflated prices.

These actions pose real threats to human life, creating poverty, dislocation and the danger of greater conflict, but negotiations could lead to resolutions. For decades, Syria and Iraq have sought compromise with Turkey. Egypt and Sudan have appealed to Ethiopia to extend the timeline for filling the GERD, to allow for needed adjustments downstream. At Oslo, Israel agreed that as a “final status issue” water was not to be impacted through unilateral actions.

But Turkey, Ethiopia, and Israel have pursued their own agendas and refused to act to promote regional cooperation and stability; their short-sighted actions will lead to consequences — and soon.

For millennia the Tigris, Euphrates, Nile, and Jordan Rivers fed civilizations that flourished along their banks. Now the selfish actions of a few states are instead fueling conflict and threatening the lives of others.

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Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the position of the Arab American Institute. The Arab American Institute is a non-profit, nonpartisan national leadership organization that does not endorse candidates.