Loading ...Threats to Syrian Unity from the Inside and the Outside
By: Ghassan Rubeiz / Arab America Contributing Writer
The critical weeks after the fall of Assad’s regime may shape decades of history for Syria and its neighbors. Unfortunately, shaken by the pace and implications of change, the regional and international powers are reaching for short-sighted and self-serving solutions. In the long term, though, regional and international cooperation could lead to a better future for Syria and the Middle East. The alternative is a continuation of chaos in Syria and beyond. We may be in the second chapter of the Arab Spring.
The new regime in Syria, which is led by the Hayʼat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), is still sorting through its priorities, but it faces stark challenges. It must deliver public service, fill the political vacuum left by the sudden ouster of Assad’s regime; forge a working relationship with the Kurdish forces, which control a third of the country; deliver justice to the Syrian population without exacting bloody revenge; and handle meddling foreign powers. One more question: It is not yet clear whether there will be militant resistance from the communities of Latakia in the West.
The best way to assert Syrian autonomy is to create a consensus among rival factions within the country to achieve Syrian unity. The new rulers may want to prioritize mending relations with the Kurdish minority and with Lebanon’s leaders. Over the past decade, the Kurdish forces have created a state within a state in Syria’s northeast. They control a large population of Arab and Kurdish communities, have their own secular constitution, are heavily armed and backed by Israel and the US. The HTS could forge a rapport with them – one that respects their cultural and administrative autonomy- to neutralize the influence of their foreign supporters.
Lebanon presents another urgent political challenge. Syria and Lebanon share deep historic and cultural ties, and are both in political transition, so there is no better time for the neighbors to work together. In particular, they should collaborate to provide security, temporary housing and economic incentives so that the million and a half Syrian migrants and refugees currently living in Lebanon can return home.
They should also work together to build a rapport with Hezbollah, which is still smarting from its recent defeat at the hands of US-backed Israel. This will be a delicate endeavor, as Hezbollah has affinities with Syria’s Alawites. Perhaps the key to a productive relationship with Hezbollah will be for the new Syria to serve justice for the crimes of Assad and his cronies without exercising collective punishment on the Alawite community. If, on the other hand, enmity develops between Hezbollah and the new regime, many in the Alawite community (which belongs to the wider Shiite world) might be tempted to cross the border to join the Shiites in Lebanon. Such a dramatic demographic change could derail the recovery of both countries. The pace and direction of the flow of Syria’s refugees is a clear indicator of political progress.
If Syria can establish a rapport with the Kurdish forces and with Lebanon, it will be in a better position to deal with the half-dozen powers that are trying to exploit the chaos to their advantage. Israel wants to make sure that no neighboring Arab country becomes independent or strong militarily. Immediately after Assad’s fall, Israel obliterated Syria’s exposed military bases. It has also expanded its occupation of the Syrian Golan Heights, in flagrant violation of international law, with US endorsement.
Turkey wants to be the dominant force in Syrian affairs and to eliminate the threat from the Kurdish militias on its border; it also wants to repatriate the three million Syrian refugees it currently hosts. The Arab states, rich and politically insecure, want Syria to recover, but without advanced political reform, which they see as a threat to their security. A weakened Iran may wish to rebuild its contacts in Syria, even with a new and less friendly regime now in charge. Meanwhile, the former Cold War superpowers have both been pushed to the margins of the conflict but are still doing their best to defend their regional interests: Russia wishes to keep its naval and air bases on the Mediterranean Syrian coast, while the United States has an interest in Syria’s oil, wants to protect the Kurdish community and preserve and expand Israel’s foothold in the Golan Heights and beyond.
Despite the current mayhem, it’s possible to imagine a better future for Syria and its neighbors. Just as the rebels surprised the world with its quick and ( hopefully) peaceful ending of the Assad dynasty, they could astonish us again by resolving the local conflicts that keep Syria dependent on foreign powers.
Ghassan Rubeiz is the former Middle East Secretary of the World Council of Churches. Earlier, he taught psychology and social work in his country of birth, Lebanon, and later in the United States, where he currently lives. For the past twenty years, he has contributed to political commentary and delivered occasional public talks on subjects related to peace, justice, and interfaith. You can reach him at rubeizg@gmail.com
The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the position of Arab America. The reproduction of this article is permissible with proper credit to Arab America and the author.
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