Loading ...Potential Outcomes of a Full-Scale War Between Israel and Lebanon
By: Ghassan Rubeiz / Arab America Contributing Writer
Bragging about Israel’s superior war technology, Prime Minister Netanyahu declares that “the equation” of power in the northern border with Lebanon has changed.
On September 17 and 18, Israel conducted a devastating attack on Hezbollah by remotely blowing up thousands of hand-held pagers and walkie-talkies. Israel had covertly rigged the devices with explosives. The result was humiliating to a resistance movement that has often boasted about its preparedness. Over three thousand people in Hezbollah’s communities were affected: not just fighters but also children, health and social workers, and other civilians. Dozens were killed and at least 450 injured. Israel accompanied its attacks with psychological tactics to demoralize the enemy and justify the attacks, but former CIA Director Leon Panetta described them as a form of terrorism.
A ceasefire in Gaza is overdue, and the return of the captives and displaced communities on both sides of the border is still achievable by settling Lebanese–Israel border issues. The alternative to widening the war is clear, but that path has been rejected. Israel is adamant about solving complex political problems by brute force. Israel may destroy Lebanon in trying to neutralize Hezbollah, just as it has destroyed Gaza in trying to neutralize Hamas.
Last week‘s attack on Hezbollah could cause an all-out war, and this week’s massive attacks on the south and east of this fragile Arab country seems to point in that direction. Hezbollah retaliated by launching middle-range rockets and missiles on Israeli military sites deep inside Israel. Hezbollah’s retaliation did not measure up to the impact of the pager and air attacks. Israel, in turn, responded to the retaliation by launching deadly air strikes on three major communities where Hezbollah’s leadership and installations are situated: Beirut’s southern suburbs and villages in the south and east of Lebanon.
It is too early to tell how effective Israel was in diminishing Hezbollah’s morale and curtailing its ability to fight. The Lebanese Resistance is solid and resilient. In the background, President Joe Biden and Iran’s President Masoud Pezeshkian are trying to calm the situation, while Netanyahu is moving aggressively to create the conditions for continued fighting. It should be emphasized that a war with Lebanon could saddle Israel with three grave consequences: the possible total collapse of the Lebanese state, a regional mobilization against Tel Aviv, and increased threats to US presence in the Middle East.
In a full-blown war with Hezbollah, Israel would be attacking all of Lebanon. The country has been without a president for two years. A caretaker cabinet runs it. The national armed forces are the only significant institutions still intact. The army has managed to preserve the unity and viability of the state.
Without the cooperation of Hezbollah, the Lebanese military could quickly unravel. Many Lebanese soldiers have relatives in Hezbollah or are at least sympathetic to the resistance movement. If the military joins Hezbollah to defend the country, as one might expect, Washington and the UK, who finance the Lebanese army, may stop supporting it. If, on the other hand, the national army does not defend the country, the army could splinter into sectarian militias. Lebanon currently houses two million Syrian and Palestinian refugees. Some would join the resistance against Israel, but many others would seek refuge elsewhere, possibly in Europe.
Should Israel invade south Lebanon to establish a “buffer zone,” it would find itself illegally occupying a third foreign region besides the Palestinian territories and the Syrian Golan Heights. The population under Israeli military control would then comprise several million Arabs belonging to three neighboring countries. Maintaining this vast area of Israeli hegemony will become increasingly challenging, regardless of superiority of Western technology and the unconditional support of foreign powers.
The longer this combined occupation endures, the harder it will become for Egypt and Jordan to hold on to their peace agreements with Israel. Israel’s conduct in the Gaza war has already been testing relations between the officials of Tel Aviv and the friendlier Arab countries (those who have either forged normalization accords with Israel or are considering doing so). The Abraham Accords are likely to end if the citizens of the Arab Gulf shift attitudes toward Israel.
Finally, the war in Gaza and the West Bank has generated a sweeping wave of anger toward the United States. Washington is viewed as a partner with Tel Aviv in crimes against humanity. Iraq has been the first Arab nation to demand the withdrawal of US forces from its territories. Suppose Israel’s war in Lebanon leads to additional territorial occupation and continuing destruction of infrastructure. In that case, the people of the Arab Gulf will likely start challenging the presence of American troops in the Middle East.
If the US keeps ignoring Iran’s interests, it would be strengthening Iran’s militant Revolutionary Guards. Should Iran decide to join Hezbollah, its main ally in the region, in attacking Israel, the situation would become much more complicated and dangerous for all sides. However, one can still hope that Iran and the Gulf States will decide to cooperate to bring about peace, whether out of inspiration or simply exhaustion. Such a remarkable diplomatic shift would dramatically change the balance of power in the Middle East. A ceasefire in Gaza and smart diplomacy between Israel and Lebanon is still possible if only the stakeholders will give peace a chance.
Netanyahu’s power “equation” may have changed, but it will likely change again.
Ghassan Rubeiz is the former Middle East Secretary of the World Council of Churches. Earlier, he taught psychology and social work in his country of birth, Lebanon, and later in the United States, where he currently lives. For the past twenty years, he has contributed to political commentary and delivered occasional public talks on subjects related to peace, justice, and interfaith. You can reach him at rubeizg@gmail.com
The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the position of Arab America. The reproduction of this article is permissible with proper credit to Arab America and the author.
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