Loading ...No, Sinwar's Death Will not Change Much
By: Ghassan Rubeiz / Arab America Contributing Writer
Over the past week, much has been made of the assassination of Hamas’s leader, Yahya Sinwar, but his death is not likely to substantially change the war between Israel and its foes. Despite renewed diplomatic efforts between Washington and some Arab states, the Israeli hostages are no more likely to return home than they were before the demise of yet another Hamas leader.
Many Palestinians now consider Sinwar a hero and a martyr, and his death will fuel the recruitment of fresh fighters. Israel’s leaders are not willing to withdraw from Gaza; on the contrary, they have stepped up air and ground attacks in Gaza and Lebanon after the death of Sinwar. Realizing tactical gains on the battlefront, Netanyahu and his hawkish ministers are testing the resolve of Hamas and Hezbollah by intensifying their attacks, hoping for their enemies to surrender.
But for Hamas and Hezbollah, a surrender would mean humiliation, loss of land, and an abandonment of their cause. No matter the odds, they are willing to fight on rather than face Israel’s hegemony indefinitely and forgive the carnage in Gaza. In any case, the near-total destruction of Gaza makes the question of the “day after” a hot potato that no single state can handle on its own: not Israel and not any other single country either. Netanyahu’s claim that Israel has reached the “beginning of the end’ of the Gaza crisis is pure swagger.
Israel’s goal is nothing less than the reoccupation of Gaza and South Lebanon and the rapid annexation of the West Bank. Over the past year, its army has destroyed Gaza. It recently invaded South Lebanon, aiming for the waters of the Litani. It is also preparing a decisive air strike on Iran. Only a radical change in the dynamics of power can stop Israel’s century-long project of fully occupying and annexing the land between the Jordan and the Mediterranean; otherwise, this war could go on for decades. What, if anything, could alter its course?
One possibility would be a thaw in relations between the Arab Gulf and Iran. The toxic rift between them has allowed Israel to isolate Iran and keep the Arab princes dependent on Washington and Tel Aviv for their security, both in defense and in business. An Arab-Iranian alliance would be formidable and would certainly force Israel to revise its plans. Another source of change might simply be the USA’s national debt, which is now hurtling past 35 trillion dollars.
Should Washington face a new economic crisis like 2008, the American public may question the wisdom of allocating so much taxpayer money to a war with no end in sight. Should that day of reckoning arrive, Israel will soon rediscover the power of diplomacy.
Visionary leadership in Palestine and Lebanon could also change the game’s rules. A charismatic Palestinian leader is not hard to find. What is urgently needed is the election of a statesperson who can represent the 14 million Palestinians who live between the Jordan and the Mediterranean, in refugee camps, and in the diaspora.
Likewise, the election of a credible president in Lebanon could restart the stalled negotiations between Beirut and Tel Aviv. Finally, political reform in Israel is urgently needed to start a meaningful dialogue with the Arab world. Israel’s future leadership could lead the nation to a new vision of national security based on mutual trust and respect for international law.
Change is perhaps most likely to come from a reevaluation of American support for Israel. When American taxpayers face a severe threat to their pocketbooks, they tend to take practical steps toward reform. In the meantime, one thing is sure: Sinwar’s killing alone will change little.
Ghassan Rubeiz is the former Middle East Secretary of the World Council of Churches. Earlier, he taught psychology and social work in his country of birth, Lebanon, and later in the United States, where he currently lives. For the past twenty years, he has contributed to political commentary and delivered occasional public talks on subjects related to peace, justice, and interfaith. You can reach him at rubeizg@gmail.com
The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the position of Arab America. The reproduction of this article is permissible with proper credit to Arab America and the author.
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