Loading ...Navigating Lebanon’s Political Landscape: President Aoun’s Challenge
By: Ghassan Rubeiz / Arab America Contributing Writer
After a two-year delay, the election of a president for the Lebanese Republic last week represents a modest but genuine step forward. The new president, Joseph Aoun (no relation to the previous president), has received congratulations from around the globe. While not necessarily a transformational figure, Aoun appears capable of implementing meaningful reforms and promoting economic recovery, which could set the stage for achieving long-term goals.
After three days of consultation with all parliamentary groups, Aoun designated Nawaf Salam as Lebanon’s new prime minister, who was charged with forming a new government. Salam is an experienced reformist legal scholar. He currently serves as the head of the Hague-based International Court of Justice (also known as the “World Court”). Most of the parliament supports him, although the Shiite parties, Hezbollah and the Amal Movement prefer Najib Mikati, a traditional Sunni politician.
With a credible government comes the possibility of implementing long-overdue reforms. For several years, ordinary Lebanese haven’t been able to access millions of dollars in frozen bank deposits. The new administration should be able to help unlock those funds. It will also be working with Syria’s new regime so that the 1.5 million Syrian refugees who are stuck in Lebanon can return home. Finally, it will work with international donors and the Lebanese diaspora to rebuild homes and infrastructure severely damaged during the past 15 months of conflict between Israel and Hezbollah. Better security and economic prospects could revive tourism and encourage the return of thousands of expatriates and emigrants.
But the long-term objectives of the Aoun administration face greater complexity and uncertainty. Lebanon’s future largely depends on effective dialogue between the government and Hezbollah, favorable developments in neighboring Syria and Israel, and the resolution of US-Iran tensions regarding Iran’s regional role and national security strategy.
Aoun seemingly possesses the credibility, experience, and skill to negotiate with Hezbollah. The party is now in a vulnerable position: weakened by recent conflicts with Israel; unsettled by Syria’s regime change; and affected by Iran’s downturn. Still, Hezbollah and its ally, the Amal Movement, remain powerful in Lebanese politics. Hezbollah will not disarm unless Tehran sends it a strong signal discouraging conflict with the West and with Washington in particular. It will require a diplomatic breakthrough for Iran to engage with the West.
Still, Iran’s president is actively seeking relief from sanctions through a new nuclear deal with the incoming US administration. Successful US-Iran diplomatic engagement would benefit Iran, the Middle East, and the global community and leave Hezbollah with few options beyond diplomacy. It would be a grave mistake for the incoming US administration not to opt for diplomacy with Iran.
Developments in Syria will affect Hezbollah’s trajectory as well: if Syria’s new leaders settle into moderate policies that protect Syrian minorities, Hezbollah is more likely to negotiate willingly with the Syrian and Lebanese governments. Syria’s influential minorities and relatively secular population are unlikely to cooperate with a regime that disregards human rights or embraces extreme ideologies. Damascus’s new leadership seeks sanctions relief, with Western nations gradually lifting restrictions as political reform progresses. Where new Damascus is going is critical.
Finally, Hezbollah’s military mission will lose much of its meaning if Israel withdraws from Lebanon and addresses Palestinian aspirations. Conversely, a diplomatically engaged Iran and strong Lebanon-Syria partnership could moderate Israel’s military approach to regional issues. A contained Hezbollah, and secure borders might encourage Israel to consider reasonable peace terms with its neighbors, including addressing Palestinian rights and statehood.
The Lebanese state should not attempt at dismantling Hezbollah’s military arm by force; rather, the party should voluntarily disarm to benefit both the country and the Shiite community. The challenge for the Lebanese government will be to repatriate the Shiite communities displaced by the war with Israel, while simultaneously coordinating with Hezbollah’s forces to ensure their withdrawal to the north of the Litani River and pressuring Israel to withdraw, according to pertinent UN resolutions. Beyond the issue of resistance, responding to the Shiite human and political aspirations is necessary in shaping a democratic Lebanese state.
While Aoun deserves the international community’s support, he shouldn’t bear sole responsibility if Lebanon’s internal traditional politics or external factors perpetuate local and regional challenges.
Ghassan Rubeiz is the former Middle East Secretary of the World Council of Churches. Earlier, he taught psychology and social work in his country of birth, Lebanon, and later in the United States, where he currently lives. For the past twenty years, he has contributed to political commentary and delivered occasional public talks on subjects related to peace, justice, and interfaith. You can reach him at rubeizg@gmail.com
The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the position of Arab America. The reproduction of this article is permissible with proper credit to Arab America and the author.
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