Loading ...Israel Miscalculates as it Turns the War from Hamas to Hezbollah
By: Ghassan Rubeiz / Arab America Contributing Writer
Although most Israelis want an end to the war, an exchange of captives, and a withdrawal from Gaza, their government is not listening. Extensive and ongoing demonstrations have done little, if anything, to bring about a ceasefire in Gaza.
Meanwhile, the border conflict with Lebanon is intensifying. Israel’s leaders have been threatening to invade Lebanon, neutralize Hezbollah, and occupy the south of the country. Israel’s defense minister recently told a U.S. envoy that “military action” was “the only way” to end violence between Israel and Hezbollah.
The United States has yet to approve a new war on Israel’s northern border, so Israel is likely waiting for Hezbollah to miscalculate, presumably by launching a bloody attack on civilians. This would offer Tel Aviv a pretext for an attack by land and air on its neighbor to the north. To tempt the enemy, Israel has gradually been intensifying its attacks on Iranian military bases in Lebanon and Syria. So far, Hezbollah has not taken the bait. But as the tit-for-tat exchange of fire escalates, a massive violent incident is bound to occur.
Iran knows that Israel is all too eager to attack its nuclear installations and has so far avoided the impulse to retaliate against recent provocations: the assassinations of Hamas’s leader on a visit to Tehran and a high-level Hezbollah commander in Lebanon.
A further escalation has just happened. Tuesday, Israel managed to remotely attack Hezbollah’s communication system, a network of hand-held pagers, causing explosions in south Lebanon, South Beirut, eastern Bekaa, and Damascus, Syria. Eight people were killed, and over 2700 injured. It is too early to know how Hezbollah will react. When either party decides it has “had enough”, we will be one step away from an all-out regional conflagration, in which the US finds itself fighting Iran alongside the Israelis.
I reached out over the weekend to an Arab-American scholar who grew up in South Lebanon who explained Israel’s strategy. In his analysis, Israel is reacting to the attack on October 7 the way the United States did after September 11th, which ultimately led to the destruction of Afghanistan, Iraq, and Syria. He warns of a similar cascade of retaliatory violence. Here is an excerpt from his analysis:
“October 7 is leading to the destruction of any semblance of a Palestine and the genocide of the Palestinians. As long as there is no meaningful opposition to what Israel is doing, they will continue on their current path of destruction and annihilation. Israel is perfectly willing to do the same to Lebanon as it did to Palestine if given the opportunity and if they are allowed by the US and others. Iran is a bigger menace than Hezbollah to Israel, of course, but not a real threat either. And, with the help of the US, they could destroy Iran as well.”
I reluctantly agree that this is one possible future for the region. Still, I am not convinced that Israel will be able to neutralize the national aspirations for freedom that are fueling movements like Hezbollah and Hamas. Iran is also not to be taken lightly. Its recent deepening partnership with Russia has probably enhanced its access to nuclear defense systems, and its increasing cooperation with China points to a changing world order.
Hezbollah is far from being universally popular among the Lebanese population, and maybe even less so in the sprawling diaspora. Still, most of us credit it for forcing Israel to withdraw from southern Lebanon in 2000. Moreover, while we are sickened at the carnage of Hamas’ October 7th attack, Hamas has undeniably shown the limits of Israel’s capacity to provide security for its people. I believe Israel has already reached its full capacity to manage the land it has brutally occupied and illegally annexed. The Palestinians’ affinity to their land is strong, and their numbers have nearly surpassed the Jewish population in the land between the Jordan River and the Mediterranean Sea. I do not believe that Israel can maintain its hegemony over Palestinians indefinitely. Should Israel occupy southern Lebanon and attempt to turn it into a “buffer zone”, it would expose itself to a much wider and stronger ring of resistance.
The idea that it is time to deal with Hezbollah after dealing with Hamas is a grave miscalculation. Expanding the war and widening the occupation will produce no winners. By planning to occupy South Lebanon, Netanyahu is gambling on the future of his country. His people are bitterly divided, his army exhausted, his main ally -Washington- is profoundly polarized and financially overstretched, and his enemies are better prepared.
Ghassan Rubeiz is the former Middle East Secretary of the World Council of Churches. Earlier he taught psychology and social work in his country of birth, Lebanon, and later in the United States, where he currently lives. For the past twenty years, he has contributed to political commentary and delivered occasional public talks on subjects related to peace, justice, and interfaith. You can reach him at rubeizg@gmail.com
The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the position of Arab America. The reproduction of this article is permissible with proper credit to Arab America and the author.
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