Loading ...Gaza’s Uncertain Future: Ceasefire Deadlock, Regional Diplomacy, and the Struggle for Peace
By: Ghassan Rubeiz / Arab America Contributing Writer
March 1 marks the end of the first phase of the ceasefire between Israel and Hamas. Forty- two days into the ceasefire, about sixty Israeli hostages remain in captivity, half of whom are presumed dead. Domestic pressure is mounting on Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu to extend the ceasefire into its agreed second phase and complete the exchange of Israeli hostages for Palestinian prisoners.
Similarly, there is near consensus among Palestinians and broader Arab populations that Hamas could facilitate peace, rebuilding, and rehabilitation in Gaza if they agree to reduce their political presence and soften their rhetoric and ambition. Negotiations that would lead to mapping out Gaza’s reconstruction and outlining its post-war governance structure are currently deadlocked: Hamas insists that Israel must withdraw from Gaza, while Israel demands Hamas’s surrender.
War has its own peculiar logic: Hamas does not acknowledge that its October 7 attack was a historic miscalculation that left Gaza’s civilians vulnerable to Israel’s devastating air attacks; and Israel would not admit that its occupation is the root-cause of the conflict.
Arab state leaders will meet on March 4 in Cairo to develop a formula for financing Gaza’s rebuilding, addressing Hamas’s future political role, possibly securing Israel’s military withdrawal from Gaza, and permanently ending the war.
President Trump’s intervention in the ceasefire negotiations has complicated matters. His proposal to deport Gaza’s people and turn it into a seaside resort has drawn almost universal criticism. While Trump has somewhat retreated from this position, Netanyahu’s hardline cabinet appears unlikely to accept any moderate Arab plan for Gaza.
An anticipated plan proposed by Egypt would probably allow Hamas to remain in Gaza but without participating in governance or in rebuilding. Regardless, the most critical question remains: how to address the presence in Gaza of thousands of Palestinian fighters who, despite massive casualties and material losses, refuse to surrender to what they view as a colonial power.
The current situation eerily mirrors the awful Nakba era in 1948, when Israelis fought Arabs to establish a Jewish homeland by displacing Palestinians. Then, as now, the conflict centered on zero-sum state-building: the Arab League stands united against what they see as Zionist plans to eliminate Palestinian statehood. Recent polls indicate that roughly two-thirds of Israelis would support Palestinian displacement. Many approve of Trump’s proposal. But many others in Israel are troubled by what they see as the erosion of democratic values. Before Hamas’s October 7 attack, liberal Jews inside Israel or in the Diaspora worried about the future of civil liberties within Israeli society. Now, they must be concerned about a self-destructive colonial mindset. Moreover, Israel’s continued occupation of Gaza and expanding annexation of the West Bank raises strategic concerns for the entire region. The Gaza tragedy has undermined the multilateral Abraham Accords and threatened the stability of the bilateral Israel Camp David peace agreements with Egypt and Jordan.
Similarly, Washington’s unconditional support of Israel weakens the US position in the Middle East. Gulf Arab states, traditionally close U.S. allies, now question Washington’s reliability as a partner, particularly after President Biden called himself a Zionist in 2023 and Trump recently encouraged Netanyahu to “finish them,” presumably referring to Gaza’s fighters and the people supporting the resistance. But despite Trump’s vague and mixed rhetoric, there seems to be a developing transactional relationship between the current US president and Saudi Crown Prince Mohamad Bin Salman (MBS). It remains to be seen how effective this relationship may be in curbing Netanyahu’s destructive intent. Given the current harsh political realities, Netanyahu seems to be on a roll.
The upcoming Cairo meeting presents a historic opportunity for the Arab League to take a firm stance toward Israel and the Trump administration. An Israeli withdrawal from Gaza must match any withdrawal of Hamas. Gaza’s reconstruction must proceed alongside West Bank rehabilitation and a path to Palestinian freedom. Ultimately, Israel must choose between territorial expansion and regional peace with its Arab neighbors. Its security depends on ending the occupation.
Ghassan Rubeiz is the former Middle East Secretary of the World Council of Churches. Earlier, he taught psychology and social work in his country of birth, Lebanon, and later in the United States, where he currently lives. For the past twenty years, he has contributed to political commentary and delivered occasional public talks on peace, justice, and interfaith subjects. You can reach him at rubeizg@gmail.com
The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the position of Arab America. The reproduction of this article is permissible with proper credit to Arab America and the author.
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