Loading ...Gaza Ceasefire: A Pause for Hostage Exchange, Not an End to Occupation and Conflict
By: Ghassan Rubeiz / Arab America Contributing Writer
The anticipated ceasefire in Gaza this week, should it take place, will provide a temporary respite for the exchange of hostages for prisoners and dissuade Iran and Hezbollah from launching simultaneous retaliatory attacks on Israel.
The latest version of the ceasefire agreement in Gaza does seem to have a chance of being approved. Netanyahu and his right-wing cabinet can no longer ignore the pressure from Israel’s hostage families, and 60% of Israelis are now in favor of a ceasefire.
The number of fatalities in Gaza has now reached a staggering 40,000 amid fears of a resurgence of polio. Back in the US, President Biden was eager to frame the ceasefire agreement as a significant achievement of his legacy, which resulted from his administration’s “balanced” Mideast policy. Most importantly, all parties realize that without a ceasefire, a widespread regional war involving not only the United States but also eventually Russia and China could be just around the corner.
But much must be done to persuade the two sides to agree on a deal. Hamas will resist freeing Israel’s hostages without some guarantee of its survival. On the other side, there is no indication yet that Israel is willing to withdraw from Gaza anytime soon. Netanyahu is insisting on the option to continue the war after the hostage-prisoner swap, which Hamas will never accept. Netanyahu’s supporters in the US are still potent, whereas Biden’s power is diminishing. The 1967 hegemony-bent mentality remains solid in Israel.
Mediators can attempt to square the circle with ambiguous language, and kicking the can down the road is a well-worn trope in the Middle East “peace process” story. In 1978, the Camp David Accords, initially hailed as a breakthrough in resolving the Arab-Israeli conflict, led directly to the first Israeli settlements in the Occupied Territories. The Oslo Accords of 1993 and 1995, touted as a lasting solution, were followed by new Israeli settlements in the West Bank and East Jerusalem.
More recently, four Arab States and Israel signed the Abraham Accords, a set of “normalization” agreements that were supposed to integrate Israel with its neighbors but implied the indefinite abandonment of Palestinian claims to statehood. The backlash was a root cause of Hamas’ attack on October 7.
Political developments in the United States and Israel will determine many long-term outcomes. Last week, the US approved $20 billion in arms sales to Israel. Should former president Donald Trump return to the White House in January, Israel will receive additional US support, and Iran will have no chance to explore a new relationship with the West. Under Trump, the regional war, which may be avoided this week, will likely occur sometime in 2025.
If the Harris-Walz ticket prevails in November, we can hope for some changes in US Mideast policy. (In what may be a glimpse of Harris’ future foreign policy stance, last week Harris appointed Ilan Goldenberg, a relative moderate, as the campaign’s director for Jewish outreach.) A new Israeli prime minister and cabinet will also be needed to restart long-term negotiations between the Palestinians and the Israelis on the future of Gaza and the West Bank.
Half-solutions serve short-term goals; lasting peace requires a substantive and honest dialogue. This will have to address the future of Hamas and the West Bank, the withdrawal of the occupying forces, and the most urgent question of all: who must rebuild Gaza and how?
Ghassan Rubeiz is the former Middle East Secretary of the World Council of Churches. Earlier he taught psychology and social work in his country of birth, Lebanon, and later in the United States, where he currently lives. For the past twenty years, he has contributed to political commentary and delivered occasional public talks on subjects related to peace, justice, and interfaith. You can reach him at rubeizg@gmail.com
The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the position of Arab America. The reproduction of this article is permissible with proper credit to Arab America and the author.
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