SOURCE: THE ECONOMIST

PRESIDENT DONALD TRUMP casts himself as a master negotiator. But when he talks of trying to achieve peace between Israel and the Palestinians, he often sounds less confident. It is a “complex subject”, the “toughest deal of all”, said Mr Trump in September. Still, he rates his chances of success as “very, very good”.

A peace plan from the administration, expected in September, is now due in January. Mr Trump’s son-in-law and adviser, Jared Kushner (pictured, centre), is leading the effort. He is being helped by Jason Greenblatt, the president’s envoy to the Middle East; David Friedman, the ambassador to Israel; and Dina Powell, a deputy national-security adviser. The first three are orthodox Jews who do not conceal their pro-Israel sympathies.

Initially dismissed as neophytes, the team has won over sceptics with its willingness to listen. Even the Palestinians admire their readiness to take soundings in refugee camps, not just from politicians. They find the team more genial than Barack Obama’s “pen-pushers”. Mr Greenblatt, the chief negotiator, has opposed unilateral moves by Israel and welcomed the Palestinian reconciliation deal between the nationalist Fatah group (which controls the West Bank) and Hamas, an Islamist group (which holds sway in Gaza).

The administration has been tight-lipped about the details of its plan, but those who have spoken to Mr Greenblatt describe it as more of a process—“a road map without a defined road”, says one Palestinian negotiator. The initial steps will probably be little more than confidence-building measures. The harder problems, such as drawing borders, returning refugees and resolving the status of Jerusalem, would be left until much later. It is not even certain that the endgame is two states, which most of the world has long demanded. Among the ideas being mooted is eventually to put Jewish settlements in the West Bank under Palestinian control. The lack of clarity is seen as a tactic aimed at keeping everyone on board.

Whatever the administration produces, Saudi Arabia is likely to support it. Mr Kushner has struck up a friendship with Muhammad bin Salman, the Saudi crown prince. Though the prince’s foreign-policy record is not widely admired, he seems to have convinced Mr Kushner that he can help reshape the Middle East in ways that suit America. At Mr Trump’s behest he summoned the octogenarian Palestinian leader, Mahmoud Abbas, to Riyadh earlier this month and urged him to embrace the American plan. Mr Abbas is seen by all sides (including his own) as plodding, time-serving and compromised.

For Prince Muhammad, it seems, Palestinian aspirations to statehood are less important than countering Iran, which has extended its influence in the region. He has sought a closer relationship with Israel, which shares his dark view. There are reports that the Jewish state has shared intelligence with Saudi Arabia to help it in its war against the Iranian-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen. Prince Muhammad may calculate that a viable peace process would give him political cover to make the alliance more overt.

Other Arab states also have an interest in restarting talks. Egypt under Abdel-Fattah al-Sisi has taken a more active role in the peace process and recently helped to end the feud between Hamas and Fatah. Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates support Mr Sisi’s aim of cutting Hamas off from Iran and Qatar. Under a deal, they would probably fund development in Palestinian areas and furnish Israel with security guarantees.

Binyamin Netanyahu, Israel’s prime minister, has long seemed reluctant to negotiate with the Palestinians. But he might prefer an open-ended process to one with clear milestones and deadlines that would pin him down. He also wants to show gratitude to Mr Trump for not pushing him as hard as Mr Obama did.

The Palestinians are also loth to alienate the Americans. But they fear being pushed into a deal that leaves Israel in military control of the West Bank. (The Israelis have already pushed for Hamas to be disarmed before the talks begin.) “Neither Netanyahu nor Abbas wants to insult the American plan, but neither has any real interest in it either,” says Jon Alterman of the Centre for Strategic and International Studies, a think-tank in Washington, DC.

In the region, officials rate the chances of success as very, very low. “They won’t find a way to make the circle square after so many others have tried,” says an Israeli diplomat. “Both sides are looking for ways to say no to Mr Trump,” says a Palestinian negotiator. On this, at least, they agree.