Beyond the Primary: the Power of Michigan’s Arab American Vote

posted on: Mar 11, 2020

By: Heba Mohammad/Arab America Contributing Writer

As final results from Michigan’s primary election, last night rolled in, many Arab American voters found themselves disappointed in the overall results of the night. As of today on March 11, former Vice President Joe Biden has just over a 16 point lead on Senator Bernie Sanders in the race for the Democratic nomination for President, according to RealClearPolitics.com, a political tracking website. Sanders was expected to perform well in Michigan last night, a state he unexpectedly won in 2016 thanks, in large part, to the Arab American vote. With overwhelming energy and support from Arab Americans once again, it is worth having a preliminary discussion about why last night’s outcome is a victory for the Arab American community even if Sanders takes second place in the overall vote.

Higher Turnout

Turnout has been higher than usual in primaries this election season, but experts believe the Democratic Party’s turnout—which still falls short of 2008 turnout levels and isn’t as high as the unprecedented 2018 midterms turnout trajectory predicted—may not be enough to beat incumbent Donald Trump in November. Data also suggests that youth turnout is lower than expected and lower than it was in the last presidential primary. For Sanders, poor youth turnout is taking a toll on his primary performances.

Anecdotal evidence suggests that turnout among Arab Americans across the board is at least on par with 2016 turnout levels, if not higher, including among youth. Sanders has received prominent endorsements from local Arab American leaders and enjoyed widespread support from the community. While a full breakdown of turnout will not be available until all the ballots are tallied and the results are shared, the campaign’s momentum among Arab Americans in Michigan left little doubt that Sanders would walk away from the primary with a majority of the community’s support.

A Courted Community

Understanding the Arab American electorate, its diversity, and general trends in voting behavior (like responding well to candidates who reach out to the community), the Sanders’s 2016 campaign began reaching out to Arab American voters early and ran an organized outreach effort to secure the Arab American vote. It worked. In this current cycle, the campaign has built upon the work it began five years ago by retaining surrogates from the community and operating a grassroots program to re-energize a base of voters that was fundamental to Sanders’s comeback in 2016.

Acknowledging the importance of the Arab American vote in Michigan, which comprises about five percent of the state’s overall voting population, the Sanders campaign hosted several events over the get-out-the-vote weekend in Dearborn and surrounding communities. These well-attended events saw Sanders embrace the community, and the community responds in-kind with palpable enthusiasm that translated into voters going to vote early and making plans for election day voting.

While the significance of Sanders’s targeted outreach to Arab Americans should not be understated, it is also important to note that his positions on a variety of issues have been key in his support among the community. The most recent polling of Arab Americans shows the community’s top issues are the same as those of the general population: jobs & the economy, healthcare, immigration, education, and foreign policy. While it is true that Sanders’ progressive positions on the Israeli Occupation of Palestine have garnered him added attention and support among voters, his platform receives strong support across the board from Arab Americans.

Sanders’s acknowledgment of this reality in his campaigning and the role his Arab American surrogates have played in sharing his message have helped others see the community as the multi-faceted voting bloc that it is. The shifting narrative will continue benefiting the community long after the 2020 race is over as it faces future candidates who may not have the Sanders campaign’s understanding of the diversity and depth of Arab American voters.

Looking Back to Look Forward

Great, so Arab Americans in Michigan turned out in high numbers to vote for a candidate who gets them, and he lost. That doesn’t exactly sound like a victory for the community.

When the results started coming in, Sanders’s Arab American surrogates in Michigan began posting hopeful messages about the fight not being over. They’re right. Abraham Aiyash, a former candidate for the Michigan Senate and Sanders surrogate, posted a poignant message to his Instagram Story: “Movement politics is about recognizing that elections are not the end of the story, they’re just a punctuation mark in the longer story in the fight for justice.”

Arab Americans’ fight for justice began decades ago when members of the community were intentionally excluded from civic and political life. There were many examples of candidates returning donations from Arab Americans and declining endorsements because the community’s support was thought to have too much baggage, to be too toxic for candidates. This phenomenon, later described in Politics and Exclusion: The Arab American Experience set the stage for a long term struggle to secure equal access to political and civic life.

Progress has been made, undoubtedly. That was evident when Arab Americans played a prominent role in Jesse Jackson’s 1984 & 1988 Presidential campaigns, and it is evident today as many Arab Americans run for office and win. In Michigan specifically, there is a clear trajectory of progress since Dearborn mayoral candidate Mike Guido first described “the Arab Problem” in his 1985 campaign literature until today when many of Dearborn’s elected officials are of Arab descent.

In some respects, being courted by a presidential candidate for two election cycles in a row feels like peak progress. The country’s pundits are talking about the community as a force to be reckoned with and Arab Americans are given a national platform to raise issues that disproportionately impact the community. After doing the hard work of ensuring presidential candidates noticed their power, the challenge for the community moving forward will be harnessing that power to ensure long term, mass engagement in the political process to retain and build on their influence.

Michigan’s Arab American community is a deciding force in the state’s election outcomes, and that was true before Sanders’ campaign and will continue to be true long after. Regardless of who receives the Democratic nomination, Michigan’s Arab American vote will decide the outcome of the general election as long as engagement in the process continues and turnout is high on election day.

After decades of exclusion to ensure Arab American voices were ignored in decision-making processes, this election cycle is part of a new era in Arab American engagement: one in which the scales are tipped in the community’s favor and what happens next is up to them. This is a pivotal moment in the fight for justice, and Arab Americans in Michigan are sure to make the most of it. The example they set will serve community members across the nation who are galvanizing their power to make a difference in this movement, too.

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