Bahbah: The Palestinian Elections that neither Fatah nor Hamas Wants

posted on: Dec 18, 2019

By Bishara Bahbah/Arab America Featured Columnist

In September of this year, Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas declared during a speech at the United Nations that he intended to call for elections in the West Bank, Gaza, and East Jerusalem.  The elections would be for the PA’s legislative council to be followed by-elections for the presidency of the Palestinian Authority.

The two main Palestinian factions – Fatah, which controls the West Bank, and Hamas, which controls the Gaza Strip – have publicly agreed to hold those elections. Hanna Nasser, the head of the Palestinian Election Commission, has been shuttling between Ramallah and Gaza to iron out the details of those elections.

Yet it is seeming painfully clear that neither side really wants the elections to be held.

This article will deal with what both sides have hitherto agreed upon; the outstanding issues that have yet to be resolved; and, why neither side wants to follow through with their public announcements in support of holding the elections.

What Did Fatah and Hamas Agree Upon

Fatah and Hamas have:

• Publicly supported holding the elections;
• Conditioned holding the elections for the legislative council if they are held at the same time and, in all three areas — the West Bank, Gaza, and East Jerusalem;
• Agreed that shortly following the legislative council elections, presidential elections would be held; and
• A list of requirements qualifying candidates and parties was published

No date has been set for the legislative council elections. However, it was presumed that they would be held within a few short months following Abbas’s UN declaration – anywhere between three to six months after the September 2019 announcement.

The Outstanding Issues that Have Yet to Be Resolved

Naturally, no political entity wants to appear as though it is impeding the holding of the elections.  After all, the international community is demanding Palestinian elections since the mandate for the legislative council and the presidency have long expired.  To the best of my knowledge, the following is a list – not an exhaustive one – of the outstanding issues that have yet to be decided and agreed upon.

• There has been no announcement nor an agreement as to exactly when the elections are to be held. Palestinian law requires that the PA President issue a decree stating the date of the elections.  No such decree has been issued.
• It is understood by Hamas and Fatah that presidential elections are to be held within 3-4 months following the legislative council elections. However, no specific dates or time periods have been proposed and many observers think that President Abbas would not decide on the date of the presidential elections until after the completion of the legislative council elections.  In other words, Mr. Abbas is keeping his options open.  Should Fatah fail to win a majority in the legislative council, Abbas might then choose to cancel the presidential elections to ensure that there is a balance of power between a Hamas-controlled legislative council and a Fatah-controlled presidency.
• Hamas is also demanding an election for the Palestine National Council (PNC) to follow the two elections above. The PNC is the legislative body of the PLO.  The PLO, and not the Palestinian Authority, is the internationally recognized representative of the Palestinian people everywhere.  Hamas was never part of the PLO, but it now aspires to play an active role in the PLO.

This interest in joining the PLO presents interesting questions since it is the PLO that has signed the Oslo Accords with Israel and it is the PLO that has recognized Israel’s right to exist.  If Hamas were to join the PLO, will Hamas abide by the international agreements signed by the PLO?  And, if so, will that mean that Hamas has given up on its own charter vis-à-vis Israel?

• It was decided early on that slates of candidates representing political parties would run for the legislative council seats. Oddly, Abbas has proposed a joint slate that would include Fatah, Hamas, and independents.  By proposing a joint slate, Abbas is hoping to convince Hamas to possibly accept a number of seats smaller than those of Fatah.  But even if Abbas agrees to a slate with an equal number of Fatah and Hamas members, Abbas would then lean on the independents to give him the upper hand in the legislative council.  Hamas has not fallen for that proposal.
• Some have proposed a reconciliation agreement between Hamas and Fatah prior to holding the elections. The reconciliation would have to deal with Hamas’s control of the Gaza Strip first and foremost.  But Hamas is not willing at this point to forego its control of the Gaza Strip prior to holding the elections because its continued control would ostensibly guarantee it a larger number of votes in the Strip.  Besides, if Hamas hands control of the Strip to the PA, what is it getting in return?  At this point, it seems that Hamas would be getting very little in return.  Therefore, the idea of a reconciliation agreement prior to the elections is not likely to accept.
• No agreement has been reached with regard to the reciprocal involvement and roles of the PA and Hamas in the West Bank and Gaza during the election period. Currently, the PA holds Hamas activists in jails in the West Bank, while Hamas holds Fatah activists in jails in the Gaza Strip.  Will Hamas and the PA release those prisoners and guarantee all of the candidates’ freedom of movement and speech in the West Bank & Gaza?
• There is also the issue of who will supervise the elections. No doubt, there will be Palestinian observers from all parties in addition to Arab and international observers.  The principle has been agreed upon but the devil is in the details
• More importantly, however, no agreement has been reached as to who will guarantee that the results of the elections be honored? Without such a guarantee, the elections would be a farce.

We can now get a sense of the complexity of the outstanding issues as they relate to the elections.

East Jerusalem–Will Israel Allow Palestinians to Vote?

The major issue on which all sides agree is that Palestinians in East Jerusalem have to participate in all these elections.  Without their participation, both Fatah and Hamas have said that there would be no elections.

The issue of East Jerusalem is very critical because Israel claims sovereignty over East Jerusalem.  Given the Trump Administration’s recognition of “Jerusalem” as Israel’s capital and given the stalemate in Israeli elections, it is virtually impossible that the government of Benjamin Netanyahu would agree to allow Palestinian residents of East Jerusalem to vote for the legislative council or the PA presidency. Allowing them to vote would imply that East Jerusalem’s Palestinians are still tied to the Palestinian Authority with the implication that East Jerusalem could one day become the capital of a newly created Palestinian state.

Neither Fatah nor Hamas Really Wants Elections!

Hamas is building a fiefdom in the Gaza Strip.  It rules the Strip with an iron fist; it has a military numbering in the tens of thousands and a huge arsenal of weapons, and it is establishing a quasi-independent political entity in the Gaza Strip.  Hamas even conducts its own foreign policy with other countries.

Ismail Haniyeh, the head of Hamas, recently left Gaza and is on a tour that will or did include Egypt, Turkey, Qatar, Indonesia, Malaysia, Mauritania, Syria, and Lebanon.  He is hoping as well to receive an invitation from the Kremlin to visit Russia.  Hamas negotiates cease-fires with Israel without the PA’s involvement, and it controls the entry and exit points to Gaza from Israel and Egypt.

Why would Hamas threaten its control of the Gaza Strip for a “chance” to win an election in the legislative council and the presidency?  Furthermore, the West Bank is not Gaza and there is no way that Fatah, Israel, or even Jordan would sit idly by, and watch Hamas take over the West Bank.  Besides, Fatah has under its control some 70,000-armed security apparatus that could easily clash with Hamas in a show of force, if needed.

As for Fatah, it now controls the West Bank through the presidency of the Palestinian Authority and a well-established cabinet.  It controls the PLO and all the Palestinian diplomatic missions around the world.  It has Hamas’s supporters in the West Bank under control and it operates as a state even though Israel truly controls the movement of people and goods throughout the West Bank and in and out of the West Bank.

Concluding Remarks

Neither Fatah nor Hamas are excited about the proposed elections.  The Europeans, who are the most generous supporters to the PA, have demanded the elections to allow them to take an additional step in supporting the Palestinians – by recognizing Palestine as a state.

Ironically, what will eventually scuttle the elections and uncover the charade that both Hamas and Fatah are engaged in with regard to the elections will be Israel’s refusal to allow Palestinians in East Jerusalem to vote in those elections.  And, as both Fatah and Hamas have repeatedly stated, without the participation of the Palestinians of East Jerusalem, there can be no Palestinian elections.

Sadly, after all the talk, arguments and negotiations about elections, I do not believe that there will be any elections.  And the situation on the ground will remain as it has been since 2007.

Prof. Bishara Bahbah was the editor-in-chief of the Jerusalem based “Al-Fajr” newspaper between 1983-84. He was a member of the Palestinian delegation to the Peace Talks on Arms Control and Regional Security.  He taught at Harvard and was the associate director of its Kennedy School’s Institute for Social and Economic Policy in the Middle East.

The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the position of Arab America.

The reproduction of this article is permissible with proper credit to Arab America and the author

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