Bahbah: Nine Factors will Determine Whether Israel will Annex Parts of the West Bank

posted on: Jul 1, 2020

By: Bishara A Bahbah/Arab America Featured Columnist

Today is July 1st, a day that will go down in history books as the day when Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu vowed to begin the process of annexing up to 30 percent of the occupied West Bank – as mapped out in the Trump peace plan.  However, when to proceed with the annexation and how much will be annexed of the West Bank rest on a number of complicated factors.

The consequences of such a move and its timing will be grave both regionally and internationally.

The nine critical factors that will determine whether there will be West Bank annexation – When & How Much are:

1. The Trump administration

Trump’s peace plan has two main pillars.  They are:  The establishment of a Palestinian state as part of a peace agreement; and allowing Israel to annex up to 30 percent of the West Bank.  Israel has conveniently isolated and highlighted the annexation portion of the plan and appears to have overlooked the plan’s other goal of establishing a Palestinian state.  That did not sit well with Jared Kushner, the main architect of the plan.

According to well-placed sources, the plan itself was written by Jason Greenblatt with constant input from both Kushner and David Friedman.  The ultimate say, however, rested with Kushner and no one else, given his close relationship with President Donald Trump.  Greenblatt resigned from his post last year and Friedman is widely known as a hawk when it comes to annexation.  Friedman is identified with Israel’s settler community and Netanyahu’s right-wing views.  Kushner, however, has to worry as well about the United States’ Arab allies including Jordan, Egypt, and the Gulf countries.

On June 22, The New York Times dedicated an entire page to an article written by David Halbfinger and Michael Crowley arguing that U.S. officials have been sending out mixed signals regarding annexation.  The authors portrayed that there were two sides on the issue within the administration – one headed by Kushner; and the other headed by Friedman.  In my view, the authors were completely off by equating the influence of Kushner to Friedman’s.  Kushner is the kingmaker on the issue.  Period.

A U.S. official was quoted in The Israel Times as saying that the United States’ recognition of Israel’s annexation of parts of the West Bank should be “in the context of the Government of Israel agreeing to negotiate with the Palestinians along the lines set forth in President Trump’s Vision.”

The White House’s dilemma regarding the annexation issue became more evident when after three days of deliberation that ended last Wednesday, June 25, a U.S. official announced that no final decision was made whether to back Israel’s plan to annex parts of the West Bank.  Those involved in the meetings were reported:  The vice president, the secretary of state, Jared Kushner, the national security advisor, U.S. Ambassador to Israel David Friedman, and U.S. envoy to the Middle East Avi Berkowitz.

2. Upcoming U.S. presidential elections and a possible changing of the guard

At the beginning of the year, President Trump was riding high in the polls.  His fortunes began to turn with the manner in which he was handling the Coronavirus pandemic.  Trump minimized the threat of the pandemic and failed, as a result, to prepare for its onslaught.  The spread of the pandemic caused irreparable damage to President Trump’s standing in the polls.  Within a short period of time, the United States became the epicenter of the pandemic, with the most cases and deaths of any country in the world.

Even with the generous stimulus packages and the monetary handouts to most people in the United States, as each day passes, the likelihood of Trump getting re-elected in November looks slimmer.  Trump’s standing was further eroded by his bombastic response to protests over racial-justice marches.

Joe Biden, the likely Democratic presidential candidate, is beating President Trump in the polls.  A New York Times/Siena College released on Wednesday, June 25, found Biden leading by 14 points nationwide, 50 percent to 36 percent.  Odds are, shy of a catastrophic mistake on his part or a miracle favoring Trump, Biden will be occupying the White House in January of 2021.

Even though Joe Biden has stated that he would not move back the U.S. embassy from Jerusalem back to Tel Aviv, he has been adamant about his opposition to Israel’s unilateral annexation of any parts of the West Bank.  Biden reiterated his support for a two-state solution.

These developments have put Netanyahu in a straitjacket.  If he pushes Trump for approval to annex parts of the West Bank out of fear that Trump might lose the presidential elections in November, Trump might become scornful and refuse Israel’s request.  If Netanyahu’s cozy’s up to Biden in anticipation of his becoming the new president, then Trump’s rage will be infinite.  If Netanyahu proceeds with annexation and Biden wins the presidency in November, then Netanyahu will have to deal with a hostile Democratic administration and relations between Israel and the new administration will, no doubt, be confrontational.

3. Unfriendly US Congress

During President Barack Obama’s presidency and much more so during President Trump’s tenure, Netanyahu has managed to enrage the Democratic party and even pro-Israel Jewish members of Congress.  In early June, U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, a Democrat, spoke out against Israel’s plans to annex parts of the West Bank.  She told members of the Jewish Democratic Council of America that, “Unilateral annexation puts the future at risk and undermines US national security interests and decades of bipartisan policy.” Pelosi cited a congressional resolution that was overwhelmingly passed by House Democrats in December 2019 opposing annexation and supporting a two-state solution.

Last Tuesday’s Democratic primaries in the United States saw the defeat of some of the most prominent pro-Israel members of Congress in favor of members of the left-wing of the party.  The most glaring defeat was of Congressman Eliot Engel who has been in Congress for more than 30 years.  Engel, who is Jewish, has been one of Israel’s staunchest supporters on Capitol Hill.  He lost in the Democratic primary to an African American schoolteacher.

This defeat could be interpreted as a symbolic defeat for supporters of Israel and yet another warning sign for Netanyahu about the potentially devastating price Israel could pay for his proposed July 1 annexation.  The left-wing of the Democratic party is gearing up to release its pent-up rage that has accumulated among Democrats since Netanyahu’s clash with Obama over the Iran nuclear deal and throughout the Trump presidency. Annexation could likely become an issue in the U.S. November elections.

A poll released on June 25 and conducted by the New York Times/Siena College paints a grim picture for Republican senators in several states as voters shun candidates aligned with President Trump.  Republicans currently have a 53-47 Senate majority and given the number of vulnerable Republican Senators; the Democrats have a realistic opportunity to control the Senate.

Imagine what could happen if or when Biden becomes president and the Republicans lose their majority in the Senate.  The U.S. will most likely:  Resume their ties with the Palestinians and quite possibly upgrade the diplomatic relationship; shelve Trump’s peace plan; resume U.S. aid to both UNRWA and the PA; reopen the PLO office in Washington.  On the other hand, Israel will not be allowed to annex any West Bank territory or expand any settlements.  Netanyahu could be shunned in Washington, and the United States might lift its protection of Israel in international organizations.

In short, Netanyahu and Israel are best served by not being short-sighted.  The landscape in Washington is likely going to change drastically in a matter of months and Netanyahu ought to be weary of what’s to come.

4. Benjamin Netanyahu

The Israeli Prime Minister is the most prominent Israeli politician who is behind the move to annex large areas of the West Bank.  Undoubtedly, as Anshel Pfeffer wrote in Haaretz on June 23, Netanyahu wants to create an enduring legacy for himself, fulfill a long-time promise to his right-wing supporters, divert attention from his corruption trial, take advantage of a world distracted with the Coronavirus pandemic, provoke his government partners into possibly resigning from the coalition, and grasp a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity by taking advantage of a pliable U.S. president who has defied traditional U.S foreign policy and has handed Israel major diplomatic gains it never dreamed off.  As long as Trump is the U.S. president, Netanyahu has a shot at fulfilling his dream of annexing “Judea and Samaria” or, at the very least the settlements adjacent to the Greenline.

5. A divided Israeli government

Netanyahu has cleverly negotiated his coalition agreement with Benny Gantz.  One of the clauses stipulates that from July 1 onward, Netanyahu can bring the annexation issue, either to the government or the Knesset (or both) for approval, whenever he chooses.  As defense minister, Gantz has been blocking access to Area C in the West Bank, according to Palestinian eyewitnesses, in anticipation of an announcement regarding annexation.  As deputy prime minister, Kahol Lavan and Gantz seem to be perplexed as to what their position on annexation ought to be.  Gantz along with Kahol Lavan are opposed in principle to a unilateral Israeli annexation of any part of the West Bank.

Gantz was hoping that the Palestinian Authority would save him from having to make a decision on annexation by agreeing to make a counteroffer to the Trump peace plan.  Such a Palestinian offer would delay any Israeli annexation plans and freeze the expansion of existing settlements for a four-year period.  The Palestinians’ refusal to engage led Gantz to declare that, “We won’t continue to wait for the Palestinians.  If they say ‘no’ forever to everything then we’ll be forced to move forward without them.”

It appears then that the most likely outcome would either be an abstention by Kahol Lavan on the annexation vote or its acquiescence to a “very limited annexation.” Gantz wants a good relationship with Jordan, a working relationship with the Palestinians, and an improving relationship with the rest of the Arab world. He is a centrist aligned with a hawk and a Machiavellian.  He is trying hard to moderate Netanyahu’s actions.

6. An outraged international community

EU countries have been threatening Israel with sanctions should Israel proceed with annexing any part of the West Bank.  EU threats are significant because the EU is a major trading partner with Israel and an important investor in Israel’s technology sector.  EU countries have also begun recognizing Palestine as a full-fledged state and that will be hastened should Israel proceed with annexation.  Other countries might condemn Israel’s annexation but realistically, the countries that matter for Israel are the United States, EU countries, and England.

7. The Arab countries’ reaction

It has often been the case that policymakers in Washington would whisper that Arab leaders pay lip service to the Palestine cause. In private, Arab leaders would voice their frustration with the Palestinians and their demands for financial and political assistance as well as their ineffective leadership.

However, in an unprecedented move, UAE’s ambassador to the United States, Yousef Al Otaiba wrote an article recently in Yedioth Ahronoth in which he addressed the Israelis directly and stated that if Israel wanted to explore the “potential” of working with the Arabs, annexation and the Palestinian issue are problems that, if unresolved, will not allow this potential to be realized.

He stated that annexation could have grave political ramifications that will confront Arab regimes with antagonistic public opinion that will oblige them to take notice.  In other words, Arab leaders cannot afford to ignore their people’s support of the Palestinian cause.

Al Otaiba is known to be one of the most influential diplomats in Washington and a close friend to Jared Kushner, Trump’s son-in-law.

Whether Arab and Muslim leaders like it or not if Israel annexes any part of the West Bank, there will be a wave of negative reactions worldwide and as we learned from Ambassador Al Otaiba, these reactions will not be for show.

Kushner has worked hard to align Israel’s interests with those of the Gulf countries when it comes to the perceived threat of Iran.  Kushner has succeeded while working behind the scenes to thaw the ties between Israel and some Arab countries.  Israel’s possible annexation would put all these perceived successes in danger.

8. Jordan warns of a “major clash”

King Abdullah II has not minced his words towards the potential of Israel annexing parts of the West Bank especially the Jordan Valley.  The king warned that if Israel proceeds with its plan, it will face a “major clash” with the kingdom.

Jordan is a very important country for Israel’s security.  It shares with Israel a very long border, part of the Dead Sea, the Gulf of Aqaba, and the Red Sea. If Jordan were to become lax in controlling its border, hell would break loose and Israel’s security would be in significant danger.  If the king decides to freeze his peace agreement with Israel or pull out of it, Israel would be the biggest loser.

The king has many admirers in the US and in Europe.  Jordan is an important strategic country for the United State and the United Kingdom.  The king spent several days over the past two weeks speaking on secure video links with members of Congress and their aides lobbying them to put pressure on Israel not to annex any West Bank territories because such a move would harm U.S. national security interests.

Israel needs a stable and thriving Jordan and cannot afford, for any reason, to rile the king.  Annexation will enrage his majesty.

9. The Palestinians

It is difficult to predict what the Palestinians’ reaction will be.  The Palestinians’ reaction in the West Bank could be more muted than the Palestinians in the Gaza Strip.  Israeli troops have access to virtually all of the West Bank and could intervene anywhere they choose.  I also doubt that the PA would want an armed confrontation between its security forces and Israeli troops.

In Gaza, however, Hamas and Islamic Jihad could attack Israel with drones and missiles which, predictably, would elicit Israeli air raids.  These confrontations could last a few days or longer depending on what kind of a message Hamas and Islamic Jihad want to pass on to Israel.  Nevertheless, Palestinians have a better chance of demanding their rights and asking for recognition than confronting the most powerful army in the Middle East.

Conclusion

There is a way out to this seemingly lose-lose confrontation between Israel and, in my view, the world.  The Palestinians have offered to sit down at the negotiating table with the Quartet (UN, EU, Russia, and the US) in Moscow to discuss the Trump peace plan and to present their counteroffer.  The United States and Israel should take that offer seriously if they want to avert a global crisis engendered by Netanyahu’s political ambitions.

At a press conference on June 9, Palestinian Prime Minister Mohammad Shtayyeh announced that “We submitted a counter-proposal to the Quartet a few days ago.”  Shtayyeh added that the PA’s plan provides for the creation of a “sovereign Palestinian state, independent and demilitarized” with “minor modifications of borders where necessary.”

Unfortunately, the world hardly paid any attention to the Palestinian counterproposal which has not yet been made public.  But, at the very least, the PA did offer a counterproposal and offered to go to Moscow to discuss the peace process.  The United States and Israel have been demanding that the PA offer a counterproposal.  When the PA did, neither the United States nor Israel took this counterproposal seriously.  They were focused to negotiate using the Trump initiative as the basis for the negotiations.

The Palestinians were left with the choice of Either negotiate on the basis of a plan that gives away 30 percent of the West Bank and imposes impossible conditions for the creation of a non-sovereign state or Israel – with US blessing – would be free to annex up to 30 percent of the West Bank.

Right now, the question is:  When will the United States allow Netanyahu to proceed with annexing any of the West Bank territories or settlements?  At this point, no one knows.  And, in my opinion, it depends on the assessment of one person – Jared Kushner.

Prof. Bishara Bahbah was the editor-in-chief of the Jerusalem based “Al-Fajr” newspaper between 1983-84. He was a member of the Palestinian delegation to the Peace Talks on Arms Control and Regional Security. He taught at Harvard and was the associate director of its Kennedy School’s Institute for Social and Economic Policy in the Middle East.

The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the position of Arab America.

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