Loading ...As Syria’s Civil War Escalates, What are the Implications?
By: Ghassan Rubeiz / Arab America Contributing Writer
In the rapidly changing geopolitics of the Middle East, what is taking place in Syria these days may have different but significant consequences: an opening for regime change, a boost for the Assad government or a promising round of talks between ruler and opposition.
Last week, the Islamist rebel group Hayʼat Tahrir al-Sham (in English, the Organization for the Liberation of the Levant, or HTS), joined other opposition groups (of different ideologies) to attack the unpopular regime of Bashar al Assad. The rebels met little resistance: from their base in the northwestern province of Idlib, they soon managed to reoccupy much of Aleppo, the second largest Syrian city, along with parts of its surroundings, including Syria’s second international airport. While HTS’ success shows the fighters were well-trained and motivated, it also reveals how exhausted Assad’s regime is. To his bad luck, his main foreign supporters are now mired in their own conflicts: Hezbollah and Iran have been weakened by Israel over the past year, and of course Russia’s forces are largely tied up in Ukraine.
While it has not been in the headlines of late, Syria’s 13-year civil war has cost over half a million lives; displaced many communities internally; caused many million citizens to flee; and divided Syria into three political spheres. Russia, Iran and Hezbollah support Assad. Turkey backs some rebel groups, hosts three million Syrian refugees and intermittently retaliates against the Kurdish rebels near its border. The United States deploys a few thousand soldiers in north-east Syria to support a well-armed Kurdish minority and to keep an “eye” on the remnants of the mostly-defunct Islamist State, whose fighters have been hiding out in the desert for several years.
HTS consists largely of militant Sunni fundamentalists, and sees Assad’s regime as an Alawite (Shiite) dictatorship. That said, the group has softened its approach and ideology. Assad, meanwhile, portrays the rebels as infidels.
It is important to add that the Syrian population is largely secular, Arabist-minded and not pastorally influenced by religious authority. Syria has large Christian and Druze communities which enjoy relative freedom of worship and life style. Most Syrians are troubled by the spread of sectarian politics in the region. Many also dislike the use of sectarian terminology in the analysis of their politics.
HTS follows a pattern of Sunni opposition to Alawite rule in Syria. In the late 70s and early 80s, a Syrian offshoot of the Muslim Brotherhood rebelled against the rule of Bashar’s father, Hafez al Assad. The elder Assad crushed the rebellion by massacring thousands.
The conflict affects Syria’s neighbors directly, of course. As long as Syria’s civil war continues, Lebanon is at risk: the two countries’ politics are deeply intertwined. If chaos spreads in Syria, the Palestinian cause will also lose international attention. Finally, it might be tempting for Israel to support the rebels in Syria, in order to weaken Iran and its Arab allies further; but an Islamist regime in Syria would also mean a future enemy for Israel.
The Assad dynasty has now ruled Syria with an iron fist for fifty-five years. The regime has been held in place not just by outside military support, but also by fear of the alternative. Should the Assad regime fail, the likeliest scenario – the theory goes – is a takeover by even more repressive fanatics. (Is this an unjustified assumption?) If, on the other hand, the Syrian regime does retake Aleppo, Assad will likely continue to resist political reform. The ultimate outcome for Syria is anyone’s guess, but it’s worth noting that Arab dictators tend to last three decades or so at the helm.
Ghassan Rubeiz is the former Middle East Secretary of the World Council of Churches. Earlier, he taught psychology and social work in his country of birth, Lebanon, and later in the United States, where he currently lives. For the past twenty years, he has contributed to political commentary and delivered occasional public talks on subjects related to peace, justice, and interfaith. You can reach him at rubeizg@gmail.com
The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the position of Arab America. The reproduction of this article is permissible with proper credit to Arab America and the author.
Check out our Blog here!
