SOURCE: THE ECONOMIST

AS the territory held by Islamic State (IS) shrivelled in Syria, American generals spoke of “stabilisation” and “consolidation”. But seven months after an American-led coalition drove the jihadists from Raqqa, their putative capital, “stable” is not how residents describe the city. Mines, booby-traps and bombs continue to kill and maim. Bodies are still being pulled from the rubble. The lights are off and there is no running water. “The Americans have given us nothing,” said Omar Alloush, a member of the city council, weeks before he was shot and killed in his apartment by unidentified gunmen.

The goodwill that first greeted the coalition is fading as popular anger mounts, especially in the Arab heartlands south of Raqqa, along the Euphrates river. The Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), a Kurdish-led militia that America relies on to fight IS, are increasingly viewed as occupiers. Tribal leaders in the eastern province of Deir ez-Zor mutter openly about taking up arms to drive the Kurds from Arab lands. Some fear the jihadists will try to exploit the situation. They are already creeping back into lost territory.

Ethnic tension in Syria’s east dates back decades, a legacy of the divide-and-rule tactics used by President Bashar al-Assad and his father before him in the country’s hinterlands. America’s decision to rely on the military wing of the Kurdish Democratic Union Party (PYD) to lead the SDF has deepened those divisions. Arab rebel forces, which also received American backing, had to watch from the sidelines as the SDF marched into Arab towns. “We met in secret with the Americans in Turkey, but they told us we were too disorganised and couldn’t raise enough men,” said Abu Omar, an Arab rebel commander. “They were worried we might fight the [Assad] regime after IS.”

The Kurds have done little to win over Arabs in the areas freed from IS. They favour their own for contracts and have alienated conservative Arabs with their relatively liberal ideology. Even Arab fighters in the SDF are viewed with suspicion by locals, who consider them Kurdish puppets or brigands. Many fear the Kurds will hand the territory to the regime as part of a deal that would allow the PYD to keep control over other parts of the country. “The hatred of this new Kurdish dictatorship grows bigger day by day,” says a human-rights activist from Deir ez-Zor.

IS, which claims to defend Sunni Muslims from non-believers, has a knack for exploiting such grievances. The jihadists were recently pushed out of the suburbs of Damascus, giving the regime full control of the capital for the first time since 2012. But hundreds of jihadists are hiding out in the east, where they slip into SDF-controlled areas to carry out attacks, assassinations and kidnappings. America paused the ground offensive against IS in March and April, as hundreds of Kurdish fighters moved to the frontlines against Turkey in Afrin. The jihadists took advantage, seizing towns and oilfields. IS still makes at least $180,000 per day from selling oil, say industry sources.

The offensive restarted on May 1st. America’s generals and diplomats are confident of reclaiming the area still held by IS. But they worry about losing the peace. President Donald Trump has frozen $200m in aid for activities such as de-mining, clearing rubble and repairing the water and electricity systems in Syria. He wants to withdraw American troops “very soon”. Eastern Syria is unlikely to be stable by then.