Loading ...A Breakthrough in Syria?
By: Ghassan Rubeiz / Arab America Contributing Writer
Western media’s coverage of the Middle East tends to dwell on terror, uprisings, hostage-taking, and wars, but Syria brought us some much-needed good news last week. This week, Israel’s return to war in Gaza and its hegemonic escalation in the West Bank are front-page news.
The story begins in Turkey. On February 27, Abdullah Ocalan, the leader of the militant Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), declared an end to Kurdish military resistance. The Kurds have been an oppressed minority for several generations in Turkey, Iran, Iraq, and Syria, yet their fighters in all four countries are laying down their arms. Ocalan, a 76-year-old maverick, has been in a Turkish prison since 1999. Ankara, Washington, and Brussels designate his movement as a terrorist operation. Ocalan issued his astounding call from prison during a press conference in Turkey. His message is simple: it is time for the PKK to end its resistance and negotiate the start of a free environment for the Kurdish minority, which constitutes a sizable segment of the Levant’s population- about 40 million people.
Such a sudden breakthrough in Kurdish-Turkish relations sounds too good to be true, given the authoritarian climate of the Middle East. It remains to be seen how sincere Ankara is in its promise to offer freedom and equality for the marginalized Kurdish community. Nevertheless, there are reasons for both sides to compromise.
For Ankara, resolving the Kurdish problem would enhance its national unity, reduce the heavy military cost of controlling the Kurds, and improve the status of its NATO membership and, ultimately, its candidacy for European membership. Conversely, many Kurds have come to realize that long-pursued independence is unrealistic in any of the four countries in which they are a minority. An alternative strategy might be for the Kurds to try to achieve equality through integration into mainstream society.
For Syria, Ocalan’s call is critically significant. If the Syrian Kurds, who effectively control the northeastern part of Syria, can make peace with the post-Assad Syrian government, everyone will benefit: the Kurdish community will gain social and economic privileges, and the new Syrian regime can get used to apply political reforms, earning trust from its neighbors in the region and from the international community.
On March 8, Ahmed al-Sharaa, Syria’s new president, signed a reconciliation deal to end the fighting with the Syrian Kurdish militia. Such an agreement could not have occurred without pressure from Ocalan and Washington. (Successive waves of US sanctions over the past 46 years have crippled the Syrian economy, although calls to end them are now coming from several credible sources).
If al-Sharaa offers full access to citizenship and complete freedom to the Kurdish minority, along with equality and decentralized governance, he will remove the most important threat to Syrian unity. Of the three minority communities that could potentially challenge the central government in Damascus, the Kurds are the strongest. The other two, the Druze and Alawites, pose little threat to Damascus if the Kurdish forces join the national army. (Israel is currently trying hard to encourage the Syrian Druze community to build ties with Tel Aviv and challenge the new Syrian government.)
There are other apparent benefits beyond national military security. A united, democratic Syria would then be ready to welcome the voluntary return of millions of Syrian refugees from Lebanon, Jordan, Turkey, and Iraq, as well as a large number of Syrian expatriate migrants who are eager to return home.
As Syria moves toward democracy, Lebanon will benefit politically, demographically, and economically. Iraq will benefit,t too, as it may reach a new understanding with its relatively autonomous Kurdish minority. The three million Syrian refugees who migrated across the northern border to Turkey could also return to their homes. Turkey could remove its forces from Syria’s northern border areas when the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces voluntarily join the Syrian national army. The Russian air and naval bases in the western coastal cities of Latakia and Tartus would be compelled to withdraw what is left of their forces, realizing that their presence is no longer welcome in post-Assad Syria.
It is not clear if the domino effect of foreign withdrawal might also apply to Israel and the US, given Israel’s sensitivity -and growing territorial ambitions- to having an Arab state on its borders with a strong army and a recovering, unified society.
The two thousand US soldiers stationed in the oil-rich northeast of Syria are also more important than they appear. They are in Syria with the support of Israel and the Kurds. They share advanced intelligence capabilities, control the exploitation of the local oil fields, and jointly keep the Islamic State forces in the nearby desert at bay. Soon after Al-Sharaa’s forces took power in Syria, Israel occupied some territories near its border with Syria, claiming that the new Syrian regime could not be trusted. But once the well-trained Kurdish fighters are integrated into the Syrian army, no foreign presence will feel very secure in Syria.
Ocalan’s offer to cooperate with Ankara, followed by the Kurdish forces’ offer to cooperate with Damascus, could prove to be a lifeline for the newly challenged regime in Syria. The new government is desperately trying to revive an exhausted, divided, and poor nation and to gain acceptance -and the respect it deserves from the world community. Ocalan’s offer is necessary to unify Syria. More importantly, the process of Kurdish integration in Syria and Turkey cannot occur outside the context of constitutional, political, and economic reform. Resolving the Kurdish question is a vital path for change in the Middle East. The Kurds recognize that the area’s future is in building regional ties.
Ghassan Rubeiz is the former Middle East Secretary of the World Council of Churches. Earlier, he taught psychology and social work in his country of birth, Lebanon, and later in the United States, where he currently lives. He has contributed to political commentary for the past twenty years and delivered occasional public talks on peace, justice, and interfaith subjects. You can reach him at rubeizg@gmail.com
The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the position of Arab America. The reproduction of this article is permissible with proper credit to Arab America and the author.
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