5 Points to know about Libya’s Civil War: A Critical Moment

posted on: Jul 8, 2020

By: John Mason/Arab America Contributing Writer

Libya has been in a gruesome civil war for almost a decade, much of it aided by foreign actors. However, the war has been exacerbated by a local actor, General Haftar, and by regional friction, signified in the existence of two separate governments. Russia, on one side, and Turkey, on the other one,  have been major players in determining military outcomes and, thus, they must exert their political will in making Libya a whole.

 1. Libyan General Haftar’s aspirations jeopardized 

Libya has been in a civil war since 2011 when dictator Muammar Qadhafi was killed following a U.S.-led aerial attack intended to shield Benghazi from his destructive forces. In the breach that followed, a former Libyan general under Qadhafi, Khalifa Haftar, stepped in, in an attempt to control the country and form his own government. His focus was on the preeminence of Cyrenaica and control of the oilfields in the eastern and central regions, and compliance from Tripolitania, the western region.

Around the same time, a United Nations-backed government, the Government of National Accord (GNA), had formed, backed primarily by Turkish and Qatari military forces. Russian forces, along with Egypt and France, supported Haftar, commander of the armed forces loyal to the elected Libyan House of Representatives, the government representing eastern Libya. Haftar’s forces failed to take Tripoli, the longtime capital of Libya, after a 14-month campaign. The UN-backed forces and Turkish-commissioned soldiers gave the GNA a victory by taking back strongholds used by Haftar to attack Tripoli. While Haftar’s initiative is not dead, it has taken a hard hit.

2. Preconditions of Libya’s internal Divisions rooted in a History of Foreign Oppression

Libya had already suffered millennia-long oppression by external, imperial powers, who just wanted to use Libya as a resource to fulfill its demands. Greek, Roman, Byzantium, Ottoman Turkish, and Italian colonizers all took advantage of this primarily desert place. The most brutal effect on the population of what became the Kingdom of Libya in 1951 was the genocide inflicted mostly on Cyrenaican Bedouin by the Italians in the 1930s. More recently, the British, U.S. and Russia used Libya to promote their national interests.

Qadhafi’s rise to power in a 1969 coup was an attempt to take back the country from foreign powers. While partially successful in that endeavor, his long term effects were to inflict his own dictatorial scheme on the Libyan populace, which ended with his death in 2011. Now, some old and some new players have replaced these foreign interlopers. Turkey and Russia are both back in Libya from earlier stints, while the Arab states of Egypt, Qatar, and UAE are new to the scene. The U.S. has mostly stayed out of Libya, due in part of the U.S. President’s disinterest in the situation there. Perhaps he figured there are enough foreign players already there. However, Trump at one point supported Haftar, then lost interest, but since Turkish troops with Syrian mercenaries repelled Haftar from Tripoli, the President has conveniently sidled up to the “victor” in support of its Turkey’s Libya initiative.

3. Oil is fueling Libya’s civil war and the attraction of foreign military forces

Some of the richest crude oil in the world lies in Libya and has been responsible for Libya’s economy since the early days of the Kingdom. Qadhafi used its oil wealth at first to bring basic infrastructure to Libyans, including roads, water, schools, and the basic elements of government. However, later, he used it to fuel foreign military adventures, including terrorist activities. Most of the oil-producing areas are in the east and central regions of the country, regions now controlled by Haftar and the LNA. The GNA administration, headed by Prime Minister Fayez al-Farraj, controls the western region, including Tripoli.

4. The present state of the Battlefield and possible waning support for Haftar

 According to an Al Jazeera interview with Carnegie Endowment’s senior fellow, Frederic Wehrey, “Following a series of setbacks for the (Haftar’s) LNA over the past two months, foreign backers have since been reformulating their support as there is frustration with him on the battlefield.” Other analysts suggest that Haftar’s forces are still committed to maintaining control over eastern Libya, including many of the oilfields and the city of Benghazi. Presently the GNA and LNA forces are at loggerheads over the city of Sirte in the east-central part of the country. In any case, support for Haftar from Russia and Egypt, among others, seems to be up for grabs. Some foreign supporters on both sides have called for a ceasefire, an arms embargo, and possible withdrawal of foreign forces.

5. Questions about Libyans’ interests in remaining one Country

Presently, the GNA has expressed a willingness to engage in full political talks with the LNA, but only after taking Sirte and an airbase in the south, al-Jufra. Those two governments already have their delegations talking with one another. Turkey has begun talks with Russia to discuss a lasting ceasefire. Carnegie’s Wehrey stated that the main issue in moving towards a ceasefire and eventual peace is getting the UN-led talks rekindled. It is feared that spheres of influence under Turkish and Russian control may solidify, thus undermining an initiative aimed at unification of Libya. A role for the U.S. is in nudging the French and UAE, who sided with Russia against the Turks, towards a political solution to the Libyan civil war.

One issue not raised to prominence in the discussion of solutions to Libya’s civil war is the immense fractionalization in society. Such fractionalization includes:

• the major political factions that define the two governments of the GNA and LNA;
• the fundamental regional differences that underlie those governments;
• tribal divisions that Qadhafi used to solidify his base by dividing and conquering; and
• the general presence of anomie, or a basic normlessness, atomization of the society into opposed categories, some even reaching down into society as deeply as unresolvable issues among individuals.

Summary

These significant obstacles require resolution before any sense of a healthy Libyan society can regenerate itself. Involved foreign actors, perhaps with the help of the UN and even possibly the U.S., must view their roles from a moral, ethical perspective, as in what is best for the Libyans. As long as these foreign actors continue to militarize and politicize Libya, the country will stagnate and, worse, slide into statelessness. The blame will lie with them.

Reference:

“The unfolding geopolitical power play in war-torn Libya”, al-Jazeera, 6/19/2020

John Mason, PhD., who focuses on Arab culture, society, and history, is the author of LEFT-HANDED IN AN ISLAMIC WORLD: An Anthropologist’s Journey into the Middle East, New Academia Publishing, 2017. He has taught at the University of Libya, Benghazi, Rennselaer Polytechnic Institute in New York, and the American University in Cairo; John served with the United Nations in Tripoli, Libya, and consulted extensively on socioeconomic and political development for USAID and the World Bank in 65 countries.

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