As 46th vote looms, Lebanon looks poised to get a new president
posted on: Oct 28, 2016
BEIRUT, LEBANON — Lebanon’s lengthy impasse over electing a new president appears to be almost over after Saad Hariri, a former prime minister, made a bold and politically risky decision to support a political rival for the top seat.
Lebanon has been without a president since May 2014, when the last incumbent, Michel Suleiman, stepped down at the end of his six-year term. The absence of a head of state has been costly, not only hampering parliament’s ability to pass legislation and hold elections but causing economic deterioration and underperforming state institutions, including a garbage collection crisis that has lasted more than a year.
The 128-seat Parliament, which elects presidents, has convened 45 times over the past 2-1/2 years, but has always failed to reach a quorum due to a boycott by the parliamentary coalition that includes Mr. Hariri’s rival, Michel Aoun, and is headed by the powerful Shiite Hezbollah organization.
Last week, Hariri, a billionaire businessman who heads the mainly Sunni Future Movement, parliament’s largest bloc, announced that he will now support Mr. Aoun for the presidency, arguing that the country can no longer continue to stagnate.
“The economic, financial, and monetary crises we are experiencing and the security risks that lie ahead can only be resolved … through completing the constitutional institutions, starting with the presidency,” he said in a televised speech.
Hariri’s initiative is a high stakes gamble. His critics accuse him of yielding to political blackmail by Hezbollah. At least three members of Parliament in his own Future Movement are refusing to vote for Aoun when parliament meets on Monday for the 46th attempt to elect a president. The move has met with broad public discontent from Sunnis across the country and played into the hands of Ashraf Rifi, a populist Sunni politician and former justice minister who is looking to snatch Hariri’s mantle as leader of Lebanon’s Sunni community.
“We will not allow the country to be handed over to the Iranian project,” Mr. Rifi said in a reference to the Iran-supported Hezbollah, which backs Aoun for the presidency.
Realism at work?
On the other hand, Hariri’s defenders say he has made a painful but realistic choice that places the well-being of the state first. Even opponents of Aoun believe that the paralysis in the country is no longer sustainable, and that any president is better than no president, analysts say.
“It’s a very hard decision to take … [but] I think he [Hariri] thinks this is one way to salvage and protect the country,” says Raya Haffar al-Hassan, finance minister in Hariri’s previous government.
Still, the decision has benefits for Hariri. In an agreement reached with Aoun, Hariri will be asked to become prime minister and head a new government after the presidential election. It will, perhaps, represent a last chance for Hariri to boost his popular standing and relevance after years of declining political and financial fortunes and emerging rivalry from other Sunni figures.
“I feel like he needs to come back to the premiership to salvage what’s left of the financial and political legacy of his father, and the need to do that became very desperate,” says Sami Atallah, the executive director of the Lebanese Center for Policy Studies.
Hariri entered the political fray as leader of the Future Movement in the wake of the assassination in February 2005 of his father, Rafik Hariri, a five-time prime minister and the driving force behind Lebanon’s reconstruction effort after the 1975-1990 civil war. Five members of Hezbollah, charged with involvement in Hariri’s murder, are on trial in absentia at a special tribunal in The Netherlands.
Despite being buoyed by an initial wave of public sympathy, the politically inexperienced Hariri struggled to navigate his way through the turbulent waters of Lebanese politics as the country was buffeted by political deadlock, rising sectarian tensions between Sunnis and Shiites, street clashes, and government paralysis. He was appointed prime minister in 2009 but ousted from office in January 2011 when the Hezbollah-aligned ministers resigned, collapsing his government. Hariri then moved abroad for four years, citing security concerns.
Hariri also has had to cope with financial difficulties as Saudi Oger, the Hariri family’s flagship construction and telecoms giant, has fallen heavily into debt. A shortage of funds has led to the drying up of Hariri’s financial patronage networks in Lebanon, a vital mainstay of the political system, which has dampened his popularity.
“He’s not in a strong position and will have to play all his cards to put his house in order,” says Mr. Atallah.
The presidential deadlock began 2-1/2 years ago when Hezbollah endorsed Aoun, a former commander of the Lebanese Army who has long aspired to the presidency, which in Lebanon’s sectarian system is traditionally reserved for the Maronite Catholic community. Hariri and his allies initially backed Samir Geagea, a leading Christian figure and civil war enemy of Aoun.
But Hezbollah and its allies refused to attend the parliamentary voting sessions unless assured that their candidate, Aoun, would win. Hariri sought a compromise, first by suggesting moderate nonaligned candidates and then, a year ago, endorsing Suleiman Frangieh, grandson of a former president and a staunch ally of Hezbollah, as president. Still, Hezbollah refused to yield.
Now that Hariri has chosen to back Aoun, the fiery former Army general has gained a sufficient number of members of Parliament to allow him to win the vote on Monday and ascend the steps to the presidential palace in Baabda in the hills above Beirut.
Loading ...